IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.9	#218
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.7	#97
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.9	#127

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.8	#323

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.2%	15.0%	9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	15.1	15.5

.500 or above	43.2%	57.6%	30.1%
.500 or above in Conference	68.8%	76.2%	62.1%
Conference Champion	11.9%	15.6%	8.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	4.4%	4.2%	4.7%
First Round	10.2%	13.1%	7.6%
Second Round	0.5%	0.9%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Neutral) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 4	2 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 5	12 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	211	Eastern Kentucky	L	85-86	48%
Nov 27, 2020	48	@ North Carolina St.	L	72-89	6%
Nov 29, 2020	43	@ Miami (FL)	L	70-87	5%
Dec 02, 2020	16	@ Florida St.	L	69-90	3%
Dec 05, 2020	314	@ High Point	W	77-74	60%
Dec 07, 2020	191	Florida Atlantic	W	77-76	54%
Dec 10, 2020	151	@ East Carolina	L	76-84	25%
Dec 12, 2020	171	Florida International	L	83-84	48%
Dec 16, 2020	22	@ Florida	L	64-85	4%
Jan 01, 2021	250	@ Stetson	L	71-72	46%
Jan 02, 2021	250	@ Stetson	L	71-72	46%
Jan 08, 2021	342	Kennesaw St.	W	83-67	91%
Jan 09, 2021	342	Kennesaw St.	W	83-67	91%
Jan 14, 2021	297	@ Jacksonville	W	75-74	53%
Jan 16, 2021	297	@ Jacksonville	W	75-74	52%
Jan 29, 2021	277	North Alabama	W	82-76	68%
Jan 30, 2021	277	North Alabama	W	82-76	67%
Feb 05, 2021	147	@ Liberty	L	63-71	25%
Feb 06, 2021	147	@ Liberty	L	63-71	26%
Feb 12, 2021	292	Bellarmine	W	71-65	70%
Feb 13, 2021	292	Bellarmine	W	71-65	70%
Feb 18, 2021	170	@ Lipscomb	L	76-82	31%
Feb 20, 2021	170	@ Lipscomb	L	76-82	30%
Feb 26, 2021	241	Florida Gulf Coast	W	75-71	63%
Feb 27, 2021	241	Florida Gulf Coast	W	75-71	63%
Projected Record						11 - 14	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.2	1.2	2.8	3.5	2.7	1.2	0.3		11.9	1st
2nd										0.3	2.7	5.8	5.0	1.8	0.3				16.1	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.6	3.8	6.8	4.2	0.8	0.0					16.2	3rd
4th							0.0	0.6	4.1	6.8	3.1	0.3	0.0						14.8	4th
5th						0.0	0.7	4.3	5.8	2.5	0.2	0.0							13.5	5th
6th					0.1	0.8	3.9	5.0	1.7	0.1									11.6	6th
7th			0.0	0.1	1.0	3.2	3.3	1.1	0.0										8.8	7th
8th		0.0	0.2	1.2	1.9	1.6	0.6	0.0											5.6	8th
9th	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1													1.5	9th
10th																				10th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.8	3.2	5.7	8.5	10.9	12.2	13.5	13.0	11.4	8.7	5.4	3.1	1.2	0.3			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
15-1	100.0%	1.2		1.1	0.1
14-2	88.7%	2.7		2.3	0.5
13-3	65.3%	3.5		2.2	1.2	0.1
12-4	32.5%	2.8		1.0	1.4	0.4	0.0
11-5	10.1%	1.2		0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.3%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	11.9%	11.9		7.0	3.6	1.1	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.3%		48.7%	46.1%	2.6%	13.3											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.2		4.9%
15-1	1.2%		46.2%	44.8%	1.4%	13.7										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.6		2.5%
14-2	3.1%		44.6%	44.6%		14.3												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	1.7
13-3	5.4%		28.6%	28.6%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	3.9
12-4	8.7%		24.1%	24.1%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.9	6.6
11-5	11.4%		19.0%	19.0%		15.5														0.0	0.2	0.6	1.4	9.3
10-6	13.0%		12.2%	12.2%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.3	1.2	11.4
9-7	13.5%		9.0%	9.0%		15.9														0.0		0.1	1.1	12.3
8-8	12.2%		5.7%	5.7%		16.0																0.0	0.7	11.5
7-9	10.9%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																0.0	0.4	10.6
6-10	8.5%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																	0.3	8.3
5-11	5.7%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.1	5.6
4-12	3.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
3-13	1.8%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
2-14	0.7%																							0.7
1-15	0.2%																							0.2
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.2%	12.2%	0.0%	15.3										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.8	3.0	6.7	87.8		0.0%